More AI-powered features and modular system design are just a couple of the leaks and rumors swirling around Microsoft’s not-yet-announced Windows 12.
The next major update to Windows won’t be called Windows 12. It will be called Windows 11 24H2, for second half of 2024, and it will show up sometime this fall and be based on a new platform codenamed “Germanium.” But odds are that we will eventually see a Windows 12 at some point. Microsoft hasn’t officially commented on whether it’s developing Windows 12, but indicators suggest that it’s coming at some point.
Six years passed between the launch of Windows 10 and Windows 11 in October 2021. Prior to Windows 10, major releases arrived every three years, at least from Windows Vista on. But Windows 10, which was speculated to be the “last version of Windows,” changed that plan. Which cadence we see going forward is still a matter of speculation.
When Is Windows 12 Coming?
Since Microsoft has announced that it has moved to an annual feature update cadence for its OS, the next logical time for Windows 12 to arrive will be around September or October 2025, tidily corresponding with the end of life for Windows 10.
Microsoft has definitively confirmed that the 2024 update of the operating system won’t be called Windows 12, but will instead be called 24H2. Despite not getting a new major version number, this next Windows will be based on the aforementioned Germanium platform, which powers the artificial intelligence features in the new Copilot+ PCs.
There had been clues that Windows 12 might be coming sooner than expected when Microsoft reportedly started implementing a new update cadence for Windows, with major versions released every three years. That same cadence would have, in theory, put a Windows 12 release somewhere in the second half of 2024. Even stronger evidence for a potential 2024 release of Windows 12 came in a statement by Intel’s chief financial officer in a September 2023 interview, in which he predicted a boost in PC sales due to the “the Windows refresh” in ’24. Qualcomm, too, released statements pointing to Windows 12 in 2024.
But all that has changed. The wildcard was the departure of longtime Windows boss Panos Panay, which resulted in a restructuring of the Windows version-numbering schedule. It seems that the new team wants to wait to put its own stamp on a future release.
Another consideration is that Windows 11 has only just passed 33% market share among Windows versions, with Windows 10 still ahead of it with 63%. Introducing another version would split up the pie further, especially considering the glacial pace many people are taking to upgrade.
The Top Source of Windows 12 Leaks
Most of the details about what’s presumed for future developments in Windows come from a single source: Windows Central’s Zac Bowden, who has tentacles inside the company and a decent track record when it comes to Windows predictions.
Highlights among his leaks about the next version of Windows include that the OS will have more AI built in, that it will switch to a lightweight modular code, and that its codename is “Hudson Valley.”
A Peek at the Windows 12 Desktop at Ignite
Another peek at a potential Windows 12 came at Microsoft Ignite, a conference that focuses on the IT community. The company let slip a Windows desktop interface with an altered appearance, which many have assumed represents Windows 12.
Windows 12 desktop layout at Ignite 2023 (Credit: Microsoft)
The (perhaps intentionally blurry) image features a floating taskbar, a floating search bar at the top, and system icons relocated to the top-right corner. A weather button is in the top-left corner.
Frankly, these design tweaks probably wouldn’t merit a whole new Windows version. They’re nowhere near as drastic as the interface update from Windows 10 to 11. And moving the system information—which is something Mac users are familiar with—seems an unnecessary disruption to ingrained Windows users’ habits. But maybe a drastic UI change like this is exactly what Microsoft thinks is needed for a new version like Windows 12.
Is Windows as a Service Gone?
When Windows 10 launched, Microsoft stated that updates would come along in between the big updates in a steady stream, using the phrase “Windows as a service.” Windows 11 has certainly followed this pattern, and Windows 12 will certainly not be a static, monolithic entity. It will change and add features on an ongoing basis. Keep in mind that Windows 10 in 2020 was a far different and far more capable OS than Windows 10 in 2015 because the company rolled out many feature updates in the interim. Windows 10 had updates with names like Creators Update, which changed the OS about as much as macOS changes from one colorfully named version to the next.
Despite references to Windows 10 as “the last version of Windows,” Microsoft has made it clear that its practice of releasing both major feature updates (as in 22H2 and 23H2) and interim updates (sometimes called Moments) continues with Windows 11. We have every reason to believe that strategy will continue with Windows 12.
Will Windows 12 Require a Subscription?
Eagle-eyed code watchers have noticed references to “subscription edition,” “subscription type,” and “subscription status” in the code for a Windows Insider build in the Canary channel (the earliest release channel). These references have led to speculation that Microsoft will require a subscription for the OS in the future—and perhaps PC prices would be lower as a result. Further speculation has it that a free, ad-supported version of Windows 12 might be available as well.
But that’s truly all just speculation. A stronger possibility is that these references to subscriptions are for business users, similar to the already available Windows 365 Cloud PC option. Even Bowden published an article debunking the subscription rumor.
A subscription requirement would surely result in outrage from longtime Windows users. That’s what happened when Adobe Photoshop first moved to a subscription model. Users eventually paid up, however, boosting Adobe’s profits and enabling the company to develop impressive new features for the imaging software.
Windows 12 Will Have More Built-In AI
Windows 11’s 23H2 update last October brought powerful new AI tools in the form of Windows Copilot. It’s already impressive and powerful, though it could stand to have more ability to control your PC. These kinds of user-facing predictive and assistive tools may only get stronger in Windows 12. AI technology can also improve back-end things like code stability, update delivery, and security.
Prior to Copilot, Windows’ Search panel and the default Edge web browser included the new and conversational search powered by AI. A recent Windows Insider blog post mentioned a Recommended section in File Explorer that suggests files and folders you’re likely to want to open. The feature is noted as being for users signed in to Active Directory accounts, but I could see it coming to anyone with a OneDrive login.
Recommended section in Windows File Explorer (Credit: Microsoft)
Another way the new OS could use AI is to suggest user actions, even beyond the simple File Explorer suggestions. I’m hoping that Copilot gets a wake-word capability so that you can use it hands-free, as you could in the late, lamented Cortana. The type of AI that’s designed to anticipate a user’s intentions could be even more powerful in Windows 12, though it could incite a Clippy-like backlash. With desktop system components and Windows itself now including built-in support for AI functions like machine learning, it only makes sense to take advantage of it for the operating system. It’s just a matter of balancing intrusion with helpfulness.
We saw this with the backlash to the Copilot+ PCs‘ new Recall feature, which lets you search to find anything you’ve done on your computer previously. Though Microsoft stated that all the data remains on your local machine encrypted with BitLocker, isn’t sent via the web to servers, and doesn’t record sensitive stuff like passwords or private browsing, security experts have raised a hue and cry, prompting Recall’s delay. Other testers have found the feature impressive and helpful.
Windows 12 Will Take Advantage of More AI Hardware
The statements from Intel and Qualcomm executives alluded to above include mentions of the AI-specific processor components known as NPUs, or neural processing units. In a piece on the then-upcoming Qualcomm Snapdragon X Elite, PCMag’s John Burek wrote, “Any recent mobile processor worth its salt announced in 2023 is now touting some kind of integrated neural processing unit (NPU), dedicated silicon for processing the large data sets associated with AI workloads.” He referred then to Intel and AMD including such units in their new chips, and that has come to pass over the past year. Indeed, much-beefier NPUs are expected in their upcoming Core Ultra “Lunar Lake” and Ryzen AI 300 lines, respectively, in the second half of 2024.
All the AI that I believe is coming to Windows 12 will benefit from NPUs for local AI processing like machine learning. PCs that lack them may fall behind when Windows 12 rolls around and may not even be supported in the new version. Even with the Copilot+ PCs, on-device AI functions are limited to things like videocall effects, image generation, and the aforementioned Recall. I think we can expect more AI functionality to be handled by your own PC hardware in the future, rather than on Microsoft’s servers.
Finally, Decent Arm Processor Support?
Microsoft has been embarrassing itself for years with truly lackluster performance on non-Intel/AMD-powered PCs, especially when you consider the magnificent speed gains its major desktop competitor has attained with Apple Silicon. New Germanium platform code may finally flip the script. Better Arm support is a focus for recent Windows updates, and the Copilot+ Arm-based PCs include a new Prism emulator to allow non-Arm-optimized applications to run with good performance. Qualcomm has stated that the Snapdragon X Elite PC processor is 21% faster than Apple’s latest M3 chip. A fast chip is great, especially one with the strong AI processing power that Windows now needs with the inclusion of Copilot. But the OS code and apps need to be fast, too. Arm-based PCs could be the spark plug Microsoft needs to get more people on the latest version of Windows, whether that continues to be Windows 11 or it’s Windows 12.
Component-ization and Core PC
Along with AI, the concept of a modular version of Windows has been floating around for at least five years. Sometimes referred to as Core OS, sometimes CorePC, a modular Windows would separate out OS components, making for smoother updates and better security. It also would allow Microsoft to tailor instances of Windows to specific platforms and use cases. Some of these instances may not need the ability to run all those huge legacy Windows applications, for example, saving system resources by omitting support for them.
The prime example of this core-based approach was Windows X, which never reached full release status. The idea behind it was to create a lightweight OS that could compete with ChromeOS. In the end, Microsoft used some of the Windows X interface concepts in Windows 11, such as the centered taskbar.
The Best Way to See What’s Coming to Windows
If you really want a look at new features coming to Microsoft’s operating system, enroll a test PC in the Windows Insider program. It has four channel options, from the highly experimental and unstable Canary channel (just introduced in 2023) through (in order of increasing stability and feature readiness) the Dev, Beta, and Release Preview channels.
Insider features have included interface tweaks, such as the redesigned volume indicator; new included apps, such as the Media Player; and new capabilities in existing OS features, such as tabs for Task Manager. Currently in the Canary channel are a redesigned Widgets board and Copilot app, increased USB 4 support, and new ways to install apps from the Microsoft Store. As expected, these builds also include bug fixes and performance optimizations.
Windows Now
For now, Microsoft is more focused on its Copilot generative AI features and Copilot+ PCs. That includes both Arm-based PCs like those sporting a Snapdragon X Elite processor and upcoming Intel- and AMD-based devices that include neural processing units (NPUs) to power the new AI features. Those are significant developments in Windows, which, for now, remains Windows 11. Windows 12 remains a hazy vision on the horizon, though the view could become clearer in 2025, when Windows 10 finally sets off into the sunset.
Source: https://www.pcmag.com/news/